ORAS demo secret mission chances

[Tiddlywinks]

Does anyone know the chances of getting the secret missions in the ORAS demo? (The Team Aqua/Magma mission and the Nugget misison.) I'm not talking about the requirements (like the Nugget mission is only available after 2 weeks), I'm talking about the chance that you'll find it once it's otherwise available.

If no one knows it immediately, is this sort of thing possible for people to investigate with a hacked 3DS? I'm sure it would have been possible to figure out if this were Gen V, but I'm not sure what kinds of investigation are possible on a hacked 3DS.

I've been playing around with the demo myself, and I've reached some tentative conclusions regarding the Aqua/Magma mission. (I'm still a couple days away from the Nugget mission at the moment.) First, I think it's possible to get it as early as adventure 6. Second, I think the chance is on the order of 1/1000 (I'm supposing shiny odds (1/4096) would be an absolute lower bound). Third, I currently fear it might only be possible to get the mission on even-numbered adventures.

This is my data:

• During adventures 6 and 7, I only reset 300 and 200 times and I didn't get the secret adventure in either
  
• During adventure 8, out of 2000 trials, I saw the Aqua/Magma mission twice.
  
• During adventure 9, so far, out of 2300 trials, I haven't seen the Aqua/Magma mission at all.
  

It's that last/current experience with adventure 9 that makes me suspect odd-numbered adventures can't get the mission (I plan to continue trying as far as 3000 trials). The only way to be sure, though (given my available tools at least), would be to nail down the probability when I'm sure I can find the mission, and then make sure I've tested the odd-numbered missions enough that I should have seen the mission (barring horrendously bad luck). At the moment, though, my primary goal is to find and complete the mission; I'll do more pure data gathering in the future when I reset the whole demo. (Of course, this all assumes a hacker can't figure this out more reliably beforehand.)

If anyone would like to help gather data on this, that would be great. If you've already seen the Aqua/Magma mission (in Steven's menu, he'll have an option to "go somewhere secret"), you'd have to reinstall your demo and then advance to adventure 6 or adventure 8. Then start gathering data. It'd also be great if someone who can get the Nugget mission but hasn't yet (if it's not part of your rewards) could gather data on how often that mission appears. I still plan to do that myself, but it'd be good to have another data set to add to mine.

Edited December 4, 2014 by Tiddlywinks

[Poryhack]

You reset 23,000 times? Props for dedication I guess. The chances could be determined by stepping through the game in a debugger although I don't know if there is a such thing for the 3ds.

[Tiddlywinks]

You reset 23,000 times? Props for dedication I guess. The chances could be determined by stepping through the game in a debugger although I don't know if there is a such thing for the 3ds.

Oh, yipes, no, "23000" is a typo. Just 2300 (which much better matches the 3000 I say is my planned stopping point, after that). I wouldn't be half so doubtful if I had actually done it 23,000 times with no sighting. =P

[Mega Mewtwo X]

I hear after 10th (when you battle second elder) the chances go down.

[Mewtwo Ex]

After around 200 attempts i failed to activate the secret mission... For some reason i had better luck with the second secret mission. It took me only 15 tries... No luck since.